Because we don’t have enough on our plates, the US Defense Department is strategizing how it can control the flow of energy to China in case conflicts intensify.
Their attempt would be to block China’s imports by shutting down the shipment infrastructure.
In terms of foreign policy, this isn’t the World War II era we’re living in. We’re living in a world entrenched in globalization, and the effects of a measure like this could have excessive consequences!
As it stands, some 98% of China’s energy imports from the Middle East traverse the Strait of Hormuz. Cutting off this chokepoint would do severe damage to Beijing, and CENTCOM is positioned to step in.
There are many variables to consider here.
First, China is increasing its intake of discounted Russian crude at a fairly fast pace, though the Saudis remain China’s top oil exporter.
China’s imports from Russia rose nearly 9% in April alone, year-over-year.
Year-to-date imports from Russia rose 26.5% to 32.4 million tonnes, compared to Saudi imports, which were up only 2.9% to 31.28 million tonnes.
I’ve said this all along: China needs Russia’s energy just as much as Russia needs China’s economy. It’s becoming more and more obvious how true that statement is!
Cutting off Middle East oil exports to China would be an immediate boost to Russian oil, of course, and Putin’s war with Ukraine is a long war that will not likely see any resolution.
At best, it will become a frozen conflict that leaves no window open for a relaxed sanctions regime.
A U.S. military move on the Strait of Hormuz would ignite the Middle East.
If Russia’s war on Ukraine and the Western response was not enough to launch WWIII, cutting off oil in the Strait of Hormuz most certainly would be.
My thought is that we’re already in WWIII, heck we’re financing it, and sending resources both in equipment and manpower.
If we take such radical measures we can expect a global energy crisis on top of everything already going on, but the greater concern is such acts could trigger a global economic meltdown.
Cutting off the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting the energy flow from the Middle East to China is the extreme side of this.
Even discounting the prospect of WWIII, massive damage would be done to global markets.
When Iran attacked two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in 2019, oil prices immediately shot up 4%. That is merely a tiny taste of the market response to a blockage of China-bound oil shipments.
Inventories would soar, forcing OPEC into a major production cut, with the Saudis bearing the brunt of that. Such an attack would be viewed as an attack on Saudi Arabia.
Iran would rally behind the cause for an initial war against the U.S. in the Persian Gulf, solidifying an axis of China, Russia and Iran, with the Saudis and UAE left to choose sides.
Iran’s response would be to attack the Strait of Hormuz, through which some 30% of the world’s seaborne crude oil passes, rendering the Strait unsafe and putting Western markets in a state of turmoil as well.
The Western intelligentsia can talk all they want about Russia’s unethical weaponization of energy against Europe. Weaponizing energy against China would be far more significant and dangerous.
The extent of how this all plays out of course has yet to be seen. The facts are we’re financing a lot of what’s happening on the other side of the pond. It’s expensive and some of it is provable political corruption.
We know our tax dollars have been sent to aid Ukraine, and we know Ukraine circulates some of that money back into the campaign funds of democrats, far left agenda organizations and even into the hands of the current administration.
So that all leads us to really question what’s real and what’s a political game, at least in my humble opinion.
As much of a distaste I have for all of it, I know that I’m only one man and can’t change it. What I can change is the quality of my life and through the investments I make, I’m able to control how much I pay in taxes.
I can’t necessary do it for you, but I can help you . . . the first step is you clicking this link